International rates of interest may fall to 2016 lows: Medley International Advisors

A number one Wall Road agency predicts international rates of interest may fall to a few yr lows this yr — to about 1 p.c.

In keeping with Medley International Advisors’ Ben Emons, the state of affairs is changing into extra probably as a result of inflation could be very subdued.

“With all this shock that occurred within the fourth quarter and power costs falling fairly sharply, the impact on inflation goes to final at the least although the second or third quarter,” the agency’s managing director mentioned Thursday on CNBC’s “Futures Now.”

In a current observe, he factors out the the divergence between the dollar and international Treasury yields. If the worldwide financial system doesn’t see a fabric restoration, he defined that deflation may develop into entrenched.

“International central banks have responded to what the Fed has been speaking to not solely switching to a pause, however mainly doubtlessly embarking on quantitative easing once more, for instance, in Japan,” mentioned Emons. “That, too, drives international rates of interest again down, which presumably we will revisit these lows that we noticed in 2016.”

Emons sees the 10-Year Treasury Note yield falling as little as 2 p.c this yr. It hit a low of 1.31 p.c in July 2016. This week, the yield traded round 2.7 p.c.

He contends these decrease rates of interest will result in favorable to inventory markets features around the globe, together with right here at house.

“Earnings nonetheless look fairly good and is coming in really stronger than anticipated,” famous Emons, who believes Wall Road fears over a worldwide development slowdown is overblown.

Although Emons is bullish on the U.S. market, it is not his prime worldwide decide. He favors Brazil and China.

“I do like Brazil, for instance, as a result of the pension reform is admittedly taking a momentum step in the direction of actual reform, and it might be very optimistic for the Brazilian financial system,” he mentioned. “It is already mirrored within the inventory market, however I feel it has much more to go.”

As for China, he believes the commerce conflict with the U.S. can be resolved and create pleasure.

“[It] would really give theChinese market loads of upside for a rally,” Emons mentioned.

Author: Maxwell C.

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